The 2024 Presidential Election was determined by a shocking shift in Generation Z (those of us born between 1997–2012) — a demographic which polling data revealed skewed toward Trump after years of staunch opposition. Gen Z’s shift was created in large part by the influence of social media and emergent technology, more than in any previous election. Podcasts opened a new domain of political conversation and mobilized a generally disengaged voting demographic. This frontier’s inhabitants — my generation (Z) — shifted to a huge six-point plurality for Trump.

The Democratic margin among youth went from 61% Biden / 36% Trump in 2020 to 51% for Harris over Trump’s 47% in 2024 — roughly a 19-point swing toward Trump among 18–29-year-olds.

It is important to note that overall voter turnout, across demographics, was significantly lower in 2024 than in 2020. A marked decrease in voters characterized the 2024 election in larger part than did a shift to MAGA. By in large, Trump lost more voters than he gained.

Harris lost even more.

Now, YouGov-style national polling suggests Trump’s Gen Z support has dropped over 50 points with his net approval falling from roughly +10 in early 2025 to around −42 today.

Trump’s ragtag coalition of libertarians, populists, ideological extremists, centrists and traditional conservatives is disintegrating in real time. The narrow majority which coalesced to elect Trump to his second term no longer exists, and this will manifest congressionally.

Centrists and Traditional Conservatives

Most Americans are not obsessively interested in politics. They have general opinions if you ask them, but typically do not research nor participate in politics for entertainment.

My cohort observed a struggling consumer economy in the final days of the Biden Presidency. Biden’s gradual cognitive decline became glaringly obvious. The White House’s attempts to dismiss this registered as criminally disingenuous. It left many Americans questioning who was acting in a decision-making capacity.

Kamala Harris’ replacing of Biden on the Democratic ticket without any sort of primary election seemed to be anti-democratic and reinforced the perception of a “shadow government.” Narratives of government corruption spread widely on social media. Nancy Pelosi’s impeccable stock trading record, Jeffery Epstein, etc. These served to reinforce the notion that the government was staffed by an elite class with an active hostility to regular people.

Electing Trump seemed to them the lesser of two evils. To them, Trump was certainly a corrupt liar, but at least they could send a bull into the China Shop of the elites who hate them.

The sheer cruelty of Trump’s ICE raids and the militarization of America’s cities lost him this demographic. His actions regularly violate the American ethos; traditional conservatives and centrists can’t look past them.

Populists and Libertarians

While MAGA itself is understood as a populist movement, there is a contingent of American populists who aren’t interested in Trump’s cult of personality so much as they are certain policies, including…

• Ending all ongoing foreign wars, and a promise not to start new wars

• Eliminating excessive government spending and reducing the national debt

• Halting what these groups see as excessive aid packages to foreign countries

• Promoting American industries over foreign ones

  Trump failed to end the war in Ukraine and conspired with oil powers to overthrow and subjugate Venezuela. Further, his continued support for Israel’s war, including direct intervention in Iran, are outright betrayals.

Trump’s populist supporters initially applauded Elon Musk, Trump’s poster boy for eliminating government waste. But then Musk famously referred to Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill as a “disgusting abomination.” Elon’s fans adopted the slogan, “A bill can be big, or it can be beautiful. It cannot be both.” The populists were peeling away from Trump. A schism grew and their partnership went up in flames like so many of Mr. Musk’s test launches. A beautiful and colorful explosion for all to see.

In addition to his continued support of Israel and Ukraine, Trump recently spearheaded a $40 billion aid package for Argentina. Offering a massive currency swap to Argentina while taking away his citizens’ food stamps and health insurance showed this group that America First was just another gilded grift.

Trump has violated the trust of libertarian and populist supporters on every front. This podcast by libertarian thought leader Dave Smith, titled The Collapse of Donald Trump, encapsulates the disappointment with Trump, “He promised to drain the swamp” — then became The Swamp Lord.

America’s second most followed MAGA populist — Marjorie Taylor Greene — made a habit of standing out against President Trump. She criticized him on the Epstein files, economic policy, foreign aid, and more. Greene’s recent resignation — announced in November 2025 and effective January 2026, after a bitter public split with Trump and the threat of a Trump‑backed primary — suggests the emulsifying effects of hope could no longer sustain the oil-and-vinegar mix of populism and Trumpism.

That these libertarians become adversaries of the President should come as no surprise. This is what libertarians do — if they’re actually libertarian.

Rep. Greene, however, is most interesting. Her move suggests she found it most politically viable to distance herself from Trump, rather than face obliteration in a primary engineered by his machine. The implications of this are gargantuan. Given that there is a clear cooling by the online Right concerning Trump, legislators will soon need to adjust their own temperatures if they hope to win reelection.

Trump may soon find himself very lonely up at the top of his hill, and a pariah on Capitol Hill.

Ideological Extremists

Believe it or not, for some, Trump is not divisive enough.

These people say that the ICE raids have not been comprehensive enough. That, to preserve “Western values,” Trump should use the National Guard to detain protesters, arrest dissidents, and target the corrupt politicians eroding the core of the United States.

Some may say horrendously racist/antisemitic/sexist/bigoted things which I don’t care to promote by their repetition.

They see Trump’s support of Israel as a betrayal, his reluctance to use force as weakness, and his apparent relationship to Jeffrey Epstein unforgivable. They generally share in the grievances of the other demographics, with an additional rage fed by the feeling that Trump deliberately used them to take power and pushed them away without consideration.

I don’t feel bad for them, though there is room for sympathy. People become hateful because they don’t have hope.

This phenomenon of racist Gen Z trolls who seemingly came out of nowhere is a backlash to the society in which they were raised. Starting with elementary school, young white men were born into a world that informed them about the evils of people like them.

Scholarships, awards, affirmative action, and other mechanisms of uplifting marginalized people groups did nothing for the poor white boy seemingly forgotten and scorned by the world. The African proverb, “The child not given a home in the village will burn it down to feel its warmth,” speaks volumes here. The Left’s hyper-compassionate attempt to fix society had the inverse effect. It created a generation of very disaffected, very angry young men. There is nothing more dangerous for a culture.

When brought up with “racism is wrong” as gospel, only to be systemically discriminated against, this reactionary movement seems inevitable. Cognitive dissonance has a breaking point.

Nick Fuentes, the white nationalist spokesman, is an excellent example of this phenomenon. His entire dogma can be summed up as, “If you’re not going to listen to me… fine. I’ll MAKE you listen.” I doubt he believes most of what he says but absolutely doesn’t care about the consequences of his speech.

He represents a group of young men who’ve felt socially isolated, economically hopeless, and resented for their entire lives. If there is any hope of preventing the havoc this group will unleash on American politics, the Left needs to reach out to them now. To treat them as human beings. To listen to them. And hopefully, draw them away from the gripping allure of hatred.

How Do We Take Advantage?

While his coalition collapses, Trump is trying to win the people back with bread and circus. He wanted to hand out $2,000 to every American from the tariff taxes he instituted, changed his stance from supporting the release of the Epstein files to obstruction, and continued his lowbrow comic shtick. When all that failed he invaded Venezuela and started floating the idea of a land war with the European Union.

These tactics aren’t going to work. Any hope Trump had for that elusive 3rd term is now long gone. With his net approval among Gen Z collapsing by more than 50 points in about a year, that well is poisoned.

For Progressives, the best plan of attack here is to start ignoring the problem. Give Trump as little attention as possible. Speak positively about Republicans who break the mold. Allow the Right room to change without humiliating or castigating anyone.

Finally, the Left needs to look in the mirror. It needs to figure out what went so horribly in the past that millions of reasonable Americans preferred Trump to what the Left had to offer.

I have a suggestion for them: Don’t try to fix things by giving some people better boats. A rising tide raises all ships. Fix the damn economy.

The Left’s platform failure is a perfect example of why they say, “the road to Hell is paved with good intentions.” This agenda brought us no closer to fixing poverty, and people are pissed off to boot.

Trump’s bread and circus act has gotten old.

Mr. President… my bread is stale. Your circus, it bores me.

I have no question as to what Trump’s former Gen Z supporters are thinking. They know they’ll never own a home, that higher education is a pyramid scheme that preys upon the youth, and that their own government cares more to help people overseas than it does them.

Many thought Trump was their last hope, and he turned on them. Do you know what they’re thinking now?

They have nothing left to lose.

As Gen Z ages, some of them will take office and power. If they don’t find hope soon, they’ll take that power away from everyone else. And that’s how democracy dies.

If you love our Republic, stand as Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. would have. Firmly and peacefully. Let your voice be loud and exclaim for nothing but peace. Register to vote and elect people who love These United States, not the power to be held within it.

We demand better.

Journalist Ethan Lieberman is a producer with the Palast Investigative Fund.

 

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Greg Palast (Rolling Stone, Guardian, BBC) is the author of The New York Times bestsellers, Billionaires & Ballot Bandits and the book and documentary, The Best Democracy Money Can Buy. His latest film is Vigilantes Inc.: America's New Vote Suppression Hitmen...

 

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